Preseason Rankings
Weber St.
Big Sky
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating-2.1#191
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace76.0#33
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.2#170
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#238
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.7% 26.9% 16.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.5% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 13.6 14.7
.500 or above 63.9% 88.2% 62.4%
.500 or above in Conference 79.6% 92.5% 78.9%
Conference Champion 21.8% 37.5% 20.9%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 0.5% 1.8%
First Four2.7% 1.5% 2.7%
First Round15.5% 26.2% 14.9%
Second Round1.1% 3.2% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.9% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah St. (Away) - 5.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 33 - 53 - 8
Quad 412 - 515 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2019 34   @ Utah St. L 69-86 6%    
  Nov 14, 2019 164   San Diego W 74-73 54%    
  Nov 25, 2019 103   Wright St. L 70-76 29%    
  Dec 04, 2019 236   @ Utah Valley L 76-77 46%    
  Dec 14, 2019 110   Utah L 74-80 30%    
  Dec 21, 2019 67   @ BYU L 77-90 13%    
  Dec 28, 2019 192   Eastern Washington W 79-76 60%    
  Dec 30, 2019 338   Idaho W 80-67 87%    
  Jan 04, 2020 278   @ Northern Arizona W 80-78 55%    
  Jan 09, 2020 214   Northern Colorado W 76-72 63%    
  Jan 11, 2020 280   @ Sacramento St. W 76-74 56%    
  Jan 16, 2020 335   @ Idaho St. W 81-74 71%    
  Jan 20, 2020 270   @ Portland St. W 81-80 54%    
  Jan 23, 2020 279   Montana St. W 87-79 74%    
  Jan 25, 2020 198   Montana W 77-74 60%    
  Jan 30, 2020 226   @ Southern Utah L 79-81 45%    
  Feb 01, 2020 214   @ Northern Colorado L 73-75 43%    
  Feb 06, 2020 280   Sacramento St. W 79-71 74%    
  Feb 08, 2020 278   Northern Arizona W 83-75 74%    
  Feb 13, 2020 198   @ Montana L 74-77 41%    
  Feb 15, 2020 279   @ Montana St. W 84-82 55%    
  Feb 22, 2020 226   Southern Utah W 82-78 65%    
  Feb 29, 2020 270   Portland St. W 84-77 73%    
  Mar 02, 2020 335   Idaho St. W 84-71 85%    
  Mar 05, 2020 338   @ Idaho W 77-70 73%    
  Mar 07, 2020 192   @ Eastern Washington L 76-79 41%    
Projected Record 14 - 12 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.4 4.8 5.4 3.8 2.3 0.6 21.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.5 5.2 5.0 2.8 0.6 0.1 16.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.0 4.8 3.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 13.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.3 4.8 2.7 0.5 0.1 12.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.6 2.6 4.2 2.1 0.3 0.0 9.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.4 3.3 1.5 0.2 0.0 8.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 6.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 1.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 5.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 3.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.0 2.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.3 3.6 4.8 6.7 7.8 9.8 10.6 10.7 10.6 9.6 7.7 6.0 3.9 2.3 0.6 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
19-1 100.0% 2.3    2.3 0.0
18-2 98.0% 3.8    3.4 0.3
17-3 90.3% 5.4    4.1 1.2 0.0 0.0
16-4 61.7% 4.8    3.0 1.6 0.2 0.0
15-5 34.9% 3.4    1.3 1.5 0.5 0.0
14-6 12.5% 1.3    0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.5% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 21.8% 21.8 15.1 5.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.6% 62.0% 60.6% 1.4% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.5%
19-1 2.3% 54.2% 53.2% 1.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 2.2%
18-2 3.9% 49.6% 49.4% 0.2% 13.5 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.9 0.4%
17-3 6.0% 38.2% 38.2% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.1 3.7
16-4 7.7% 31.9% 31.9% 14.5 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.0 0.3 5.3
15-5 9.6% 25.9% 25.9% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.6 7.1
14-6 10.6% 18.4% 18.4% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.9 8.6
13-7 10.7% 13.6% 13.6% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 9.2
12-8 10.6% 10.1% 10.1% 15.8 0.0 0.2 0.9 9.5
11-9 9.8% 8.4% 8.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 9.0
10-10 7.8% 4.1% 4.1% 15.9 0.0 0.3 7.5
9-11 6.7% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.2 6.5
8-12 4.8% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 4.7
7-13 3.6% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 3.6
6-14 2.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.2
5-15 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.6
4-16 0.8% 0.8
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 16.7% 16.7% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.2 3.6 4.7 5.1 83.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%